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Best of Jerry Stickman

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Jared's Hedge Betting System

8 November 2008

Hello Jerry,

I do not know how to program and I am looking for someone to write a betting script for me for the Smart Craps simulator with a strategy that I am working on.

I'm a stalker of the different sites as there is so much info and hard to tell what is worth anything. I came up with this strategy and I like the idea that you can win (at least something) on every roll of the dice, and I'm just trying to tweak the amount and bets to hedge based on percentages.

I have been trying out my strategy with simulated games and have seemed to do fairly well. While I know the games are not fair, I think my system reduces the house edge enough to make a profit on the small scale. So basically I would want the script to run until my bankroll was gone or that I doubled my bankroll.

It's a fairly straight forward hedging strategy where nothing changes, the come out roll the bets are always the same, with some place bets with the field and both the pass and don't pass but at different amounts with full odds.

When I play the simulated games I always come out ahead, but I would like to get some reassurance or reality check at least with some mathematics.

The table set up would be 3-4-5 odds. Here are the bets on the come out: $10 on each hop bet (total $30), $25 pass line, $100 don't pass line, $10 field, same bets until a point is established. After the point, $600 odds on don't pass, $75-100-125 odds on pass, $25 place 5, $30 place 6, $30 place 8, $10 field. If the point loses then I would replace the point number. I always have a field bet. I place 5, 6, and 8 every time regardless of the point; the point does not matter to me. I always collect winnings.

That's it - nothing changes. On paper it has worked out on average. I have seen that the point is only hit 40% of the time or less. If that is true I only need to make $30 during play to make up the difference, so anything over that, or anything during play on a don't pass win, is profit. The concern is having enough bankroll to endure 4 or potentially more losses in a roll.

To me a "loss" is the point being hit. If the point is hit, I lose money overall. So the goal is to make up $34 before that (or ideally a 7 out) happens. So if 4 points hit in a row, I'm down $2,000, as with this system you lose $505 when the point hits. If someone 7 outs I win on average $280 ($205 if the point is 4, 10 - $280 for 5,9 and $365 for 6,8), so basically on ten rolls if the table 7 outs 60% of the time I win 6 x $280 = $1680 and lose 4 x $505 = $2020, which leaves me with a loss of $340 / 10 rolls or $34 per roll, that is why I do the iron cross with the field, because in my theory of an average round being 8.5 rolls, I should make money as I make $10 (double on 2, triple on 12) on the field when it hits, or $25 when 5,6 or 8 hit.

I'm only starting with $2,000, so I'm trying to figure out:

  1. If my math and assumptions above are correct
  2. What my starting bankroll needs to be
  3. What a good amount is to stop and walk away once I hit a certain dollar amount

Let me know what you would charge to write this script.

Thanks,
Jared

Well, Jared, you certainly have a myriad of bets in your system, including some high house edge bets such as the hopping 7s. You will certainly keep the dealers busy. I have written many betting scripts for Smart Craps and could write one for your system.

However, I can save you a lot of time and expense, Jared. You will lose. In the long run you will lose 35 cents on each $25 pass line bet, $1.40 on each $100 don't pass bet, $3.33 on the hop bets, $1 on each $25 5 bet placed, roughly $0.45 on each $30 6 and 8 bet and about $0.28 on each $10 field bet (if the 12 pays triple - $0.56 if the 2 and 12 pay double).

I have simulated several hedge bet systems (including the Iron Cross, which a portion of your system uses) as well as progression betting systems and the results are ALWAYS the same as the math dictates. While the average hand is about 8.5 rolls, the actual number of rolls per hand varies wildly. There will be times when you win and there will be times when you lose, but you will end up losing more than you win. $2,000 won't last very long in a random game.

If you are serious about your desire to make money at craps, your best bet is to take one of your gambling stakes and invest in a Golden Touch dice control class. Developing a controlled throw and only betting the best bets is the only way to make money playing craps.

Sorry, Jared but what I tell you is the truth.

Recent Articles
Best of Jerry Stickman
Jerry Stickman

Jerry "Stickman" is an expert in dice control at craps, blackjack, advantage slots and video poker. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines. The "Stickman" is also a certified instructor for Golden Touch Craps dice control classes and Golden Touch Blackjack's advantage classes. He also teaches a course in advantage-play slots and video poker. For more information visit www.goldentouchcraps.com or www.goldentouchblackjack.com or call 1-800-944-0406 for a free brochure. You can contact Jerry "Stickman" at stickmanGTC@aol.com.

Jerry Stickman Websites:

www.goldentouchcraps.com
www.goldentouchblackjack.com
Jerry Stickman
Jerry "Stickman" is an expert in dice control at craps, blackjack, advantage slots and video poker. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines. The "Stickman" is also a certified instructor for Golden Touch Craps dice control classes and Golden Touch Blackjack's advantage classes. He also teaches a course in advantage-play slots and video poker. For more information visit www.goldentouchcraps.com or www.goldentouchblackjack.com or call 1-800-944-0406 for a free brochure. You can contact Jerry "Stickman" at stickmanGTC@aol.com.

Jerry Stickman Websites:

www.goldentouchcraps.com
www.goldentouchblackjack.com