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20 August 2016
By Jerry Stickman
I came across an article that states waiting seven rolls before betting is 'similar' to the 5-Count with similar results. Yet it is different. It states you make your bet after the shooter's seventh roll.
However, with the 5-Count you make the bet on the first roll after the 5-Count is completed. My guess is the 5-Count is rarely completed in five rolls. You need to factor in a 7 and 11 on the come out and a 2, 3, 11 or 12 after the four-count. This would make it virtually identical.
I am just interested in your thoughts. Also, if you choose to bet on the eighth roll after waiting for seven rolls, obviously it eliminates random rollers. Is the percentage of being on a rhythmic roller the same as if you used the 5-Count? Did I miss that or wasn't it stated?
You are right in guessing that the 5-Count is many times not completed in just five rolls. This is the case just as you stated – you have to wait for a box number on the first and after the fourth rolls.
In addition, placing your first bet after the seventh roll is relatively close to using the 5-Count to determine when to start betting. It is not exactly the same, but it is close enough.
The reason people prefer to wait until the eighth roll to bet rather than doing the 5-Count is that there is really no thinking involved. You just count rolls. You don’t have to worry about whether it is a come-out roll or that the count is now four and you have to wait for a box number before you can bet. You just count the rolls.
In reality, it really does not matter what type of count you use when betting on a random roller. The thing that really matters is that you will lose money on a random roller. This means the less money you bet on them, the better it is for you — or more accurately, the better it is for your bankroll.
So, the longer you wait to bet, the less money you will bet and the less money you bet, the less you will lose. Consequently, using an 8-count, 10-count, 20-count or 50-count would each be incrementally better from a money lost standpoint.
For those readers who are unfamiliar with it, let me explain how the 5-Count works.
The 5-Count starts when a box number appears, so initially you ignore any appearance of a 2, 3, 7, 11 or 12. Since it is a come-out roll, the 7 will not end this shooter's roll. Once a box number (consisting of a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10) appears, you have completed the 1-count. The next three numbers can be any number including the 2, 3, 11 and 12. These three rolls satisfy the 2-count, 3-count and 4-count.
However, should a 7 appear, that will end the shooters roll and you will have to start the 5-Count all over with the next shooter. After you reach the 4-Count, in order to complete the 5-Count series, the shooter must throw another box number (4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10). Any 2s, 3s, 11s and 12s are ignored just like when starting the series. Again, a 7 will end the current shooter’s roll and you will start all over with the next shooter. Once the shooter hits the final box number, you are ready to bet.
The article you mentioned is correct in stating that waiting until after the seventh roll and the 5-Count are similar in that the 5-Count will average out somewhat near seven rolls. It is also a whole lot easier to simply count seven rolls and then bet. You can do whatever is best for you, keeping in mind that the less you bet on a random shooter the better.
Will the seven-roll get you on the same percentage of rhythmic rollers as the 5-Count? Not exactly, but it will be very close. The reason you want to be on a rhythmic roller is they tend to have longer rolls than the average random roller.
While it is true that getting on a rhythmic roller one roll sooner or one roll later may alter your winnings for that particular roll, but in the long run, the difference will be indistinguishable between betting using the 5-Count or betting after the shooter has rolled seven times. Keep in mind that there are very few rhythmic rollers, and of those, there are much fewer who can actually control the dice well enough to have a consistent edge over the casino.
Use whatever system you like to decide when to start betting. Just remember, with a random shooter, less is more.
May all your wins be swift and large and all your losses slow and tiny.
Jerry “Stickman” authored the video poker section of Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker! You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at firstname.lastname@example.org
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