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15 August 2015
By Jerry Stickman
This is a follow-up question from a previous article about the house edge at craps from Bill:
I understand the percentages you mentioned in your response to my original questions, and using your reply I can rephrase my question.
On the come out I have a 2-1 edge on 12 rolls which is 33.1/3% edge. If one of the other 24 combinations occurs and I roll again and make a come bet, won't the 33 1/3% edge on the new come bet offset the house edge of the original pass line bet number? I am thinking that only on the 3rd roll after the come bet becomes a number does the edge go to the casino.
So if I only make those two bets then I should be able to have a decent chance to come away a winner. . . . Am I right or wrong? . . .
Technically you are correct. You may have an edge – for those two rolls only. You will break even if the point number is a 4 or 10.
The problem, however, is the come bet and the pass-line bet will probably still be in play – and the house will have a huge edge on those two bets and there is nothing you can do about it. They are contract bets and you have to play them until they are resolved either by hitting the numbers or by sevening out.
You have to look at the entire bet cycle. Also if you choose to make additional come bets, they will become less and less helpful as you have more come bets working.
My advice is to play as few pass-line and come bets as you are comfortable with (just one bet on the pass line at table minimum is ideal for a random shooter) and back the (hopefully) one pass line bet with the highest odds bet you can afford. You will keep more of your money that way. Each base portion of a pass line or come bet carries an additional edge for the casino. By reducing the number of bets and putting the money you would have bet on the additional bet on the odds portion, your loss is reduced.
For example, if you normally make one pass line and two come bets for $10 each and put double odds behind each of them, you will have a total of $90 on the table. You will lose 1.4% on the $30 you have bet on the base portion (42 cents) and break even on the odds portion. Making one pass line bet (or come bet) for $10 and backing it with $80 (assuming the table limits allow it), you will still have $90 wagered, but your loss will be just 14 cents.
This method will allow you to lose less and therefore stay at the tables longer with the same bankroll.
May all your wins be swift and large and all your losses slow and tiny.
Gaming expert Jerry “Stickman” authored the video poker section of "Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker!" You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at email@example.com
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